I-China ingase ingakwazi ukufinyelela esicongweni embonini yayo yokukhiqiza futhi njengoba abasebenzi bemba eqolo lapho kanye ne-geo-political equation nezwe laseNtshonalanga azinzile, yingakho abatshalizimali kanye nezinkampani ezihlinzeka ngezinsizakalo zithola enye isisekelo.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukungeniswa kwezingubo ezivela e-USA, EU, Canada kanye nezinye izimakethe zezimpahla ezinkulu emhlabeni sekusondele ngokushesha ezingeni langaphambi kobhubhane.Izimboni kulo lonke elase-India nase-Bangladesh zibika ukuthi zibhukhe wonke amakhono azo kuze kube u-December kulo nyaka njengoba zizokwandisa okunye ukuthuthukisa amakhono amaningi ngonyaka ozayo.
Ukubusa kweShayina ezimpahleni nasekuthumeleni izindwangu kwamanye amazwe kuya ngokuya kuncipha, uma idatha ikhona.Umkhuba wabathengi abasuka kude neChina uqale emuva ngo-2016-2017 lapho izindleko eziphezulu zokukhiqiza zenyusa amanani entengo yezingubo futhi abathengi basala bengenakho ukukhetha ngaphandle kokusesha ezinye izindawo.Kwabe sekufika i-COVID-19 eyanyakazisa umhlaba wonke kanye nokutholwa kwezimpahla zokugqoka kwabonakala sengathi kuthuthelwe emazweni anjengeBangladesh, India, Pakistan kanye ne-Indonesia.Izenzo ezingalungile ezisolwayo esifundeni sayo sase-Xinjiang zaphinde zenza umonakalo embonini yokukhiqiza izindwangu zase-China nedumela.Zonke lezi zizathu zanele ukuqagela ukuthi uhlobo oluphezulu lokukhiqizwa kwezingubo (ezimakethe ezithunyelwa ngaphandle) e-China ngeke luphinde luqale futhi.
Ngakho-ke, zithini izibalo ezisemthethweni mayelana nokwehla kokuthunyelwa kwe-China kwamanye amazwe?Izimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kweChina endaweni yayo enkulu kunazo zonke e-USA zinciphe cishe ngamaphesenti angu-9.65 eminyakeni eyisithupha edlule njengoba isabelo saseChina ekuthengisweni kwezimpahla zaseMelika sehle safinyelela kumaphesenti angama-24.03 ngo-2021 sisuka kumaphesenti angama-35.86 ngo-2015.
Ngakho-ke, zithini izibalo ezisemthethweni mayelana nokwehla kokuthunyelwa kwe-China kwamanye amazwe?Izimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kweChina endaweni yayo enkulu kunazo zonke e-USA zinciphe cishe ngamaphesenti angu-9.65 eminyakeni eyisithupha edlule njengoba isabelo saseChina ekuthengisweni kwezimpahla zaseMelika sehle safinyelela kumaphesenti angama-24.03 ngo-2021 sisuka kumaphesenti angama-35.86 ngo-2015.
Ngokwezibalo zenani, ukuthengiswa kwezimpahla zaseChina e-USA kwabiza ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-30.54 ngonyaka wezi-2015, okwehle kwafinyelela ku-US $ 19.61 billion ngo-2021 futhi lokho kusho ukulahleka kwemali etholwa yiChina emakethe yaseMelika kuphela ngama-US $ 10.93 billion. isikhathi seminyaka emine!
Okubalulekile, izintengo zeyunithi zokuthunyelwa kwezimpahla zaseShayina zehle kakhulu zafinyelela ku-$1.76 i-SME ngayinye ngo-2021 zisuka e-US $2.35 i-SME ngayinye ngo-2017 - lokho ukwehla ngamaphesenti angama-25.10 ezintengo zamayunithi.Ngokuphambene nalokho, ngesikhathi esifanayo (2017-2021), amanani eyunithi yase-USA avele ehle ngamaphesenti angu-7 ukusuka e-US $ 2.98 nge-SME ngayinye ngo-2021 kuya e-US $ 2.77 nge-SME ngayinye ngo-2021.
Uma imakethe ye-European Union (EU) icatshangelwa, uma ihlangene, iyimakethe engenisa izimpahla kwamanye amazwe enkulu kunazo zonke futhi yenza cishe amaphesenti angama-21 enani lezimpahla ezithengwayo emhlabeni, ngokusho kweWorld Trade Organisation (WTO).Ngokwenani lezimpahla zokugqoka ezisetshenzisiwe, i-EU yangenisa izimpahla zokugqoka ezicishe zibe yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-25 ngo-2021, zisuka ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-19 ngo-2015.
Ukwehla kweShayina kubonakala nasemakethe yezimpahla ze-EU, nakuba kancane kancane cishe ngamaphesenti angu-1.50 ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwentengo yabasebenzi kanye nempahla.I-China ingumthengisi oyedwa omkhulu kunabo bonke ku-EU ebalwa ngamaphesenti angama-30 enani le-EU (Engeziwe i-EU-27) ngo-2021, kanti isabelo sayo esihlakaniphile sehle sisuka ku-€ 21.90 billion ngo-2015 saya ku-€ 21.67 billion ngo-2021.
I-China iphinde yaba nemiphumela emihle ekuthunyelweni kwayo kwezimpahla eCanada futhi isabelo sayo kumanani wokungenisa izingubo zaseCanada ehle ngamaphesenti angama-7.50 ukusuka ngonyaka wezi-2017 kuya ku-2021.
I-CHINA IYENQA IMPELA FUTHI OZAKWANA BAYO BASE-ASIA BASHESHA UKUTHOLA AMATHUBA...
I-China ingase ingakwazi ukufinyelela esicongweni embonini yayo yokukhiqiza futhi njengoba abasebenzi bemba eqolo lapho kanye ne-geo-political equation nezwe laseNtshonalanga azinzile, yingakho abatshalizimali kanye nezinkampani ezihlinzeka ngezinsizakalo zithola enye isisekelo.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukungeniswa kwezingubo ezivela e-USA, EU, Canada kanye nezinye izimakethe zezimpahla ezinkulu emhlabeni sekusondele ngokushesha ezingeni langaphambi kobhubhane.Izimboni kulo lonke elase-India, Bangladesh kanye nasePakistan zibika ukuthi zibhukhe wonke amakhono azo kuze kube nguZibandlela walo nyaka njengoba ziyokwengeza ukuze kuthuthukiswe amanye amakhono ngonyaka ozayo.
● Injani i-India?
Phakathi nokuncipha kweChina, i-India ikwazile ukuthatha ama-oda asuka eChina.Iqembu laseNdiya elithumela impahla ngaphandle, likhuthazwe imiyalo eqinile nokuvuselelwa kwemboni yokudayisa emhlabeni wonke, linyuse imali engenayo yokuthekelisa ngamaphesenti angama-24 ngo-2021 ngo-2020.
Njengokwedatha ehlaziywe yi-Team Apparel Resources, i-India yavala iwashi lama-US $ 15.21 billion ngonyaka wekhalenda ka-2021 uma kuqhathaniswa namaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-12.27 ngo-2020. Indawo ehamba phambili yokuthumela impahla e-India ngo-2021 kwaba yi-USA lapho abathengisi bempahla bathumela khona imali engama-US $ 4.78 billion. izingubo, ephawula ukukhula kwe-YoY ngamaphesenti angu-44.93.Ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla zaseNdiya e-USA ngo-2021 kusalokhu kusebenza kahle kakhulu kwezimpahla zokuthunyelwa kwempahla phakathi neshumi leminyaka eledlule, okubonisa ukuphindaphindeka okuqinile endaweni ephezulu yokuthumela ngaphandle ngemuva kobhubhane olubhubhisayo.Eqinisweni, isabelo se-India kumanani wokungenisa kwezimpahla zase-US bekungamaphesenti angama-4.29 ngonyaka ka-2015, manje esenyuke safinyelela kumaphesenti angama-5.13 ngo-2021.
Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla e-USA ngo-2021 kwaze kwadlula izibalo ezaba khona ngonyaka wangaphambi kobhubhane ka-2019 lapho i-USA ingenisa izingubo ezivela eNdiya zibiza ama-US $ 4.34 billion.Isizathu esiqinile sokuthi i-India ithole ibhizinisi yingoba leli zwe beliyisizinda sokukhiqiza ukotini futhi lithathwa njengelinye iShayina kusukela njalo, nokho amandla alo angempela emkhakheni wezindwangu asazoqashelwa.Ezikhathini zamuva nje, ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kukakotini, izintambo zikakotini, imicu, nezindwangu kuye kwakhula kakhulu futhi maningi amathuba okuthi isisekelo somthengi siqhubeke siqhela e-China okungenani isikhathi esithile maduze nje.
Ngakho-ke, ukushintshwa kwebhizinisi eChina akukhona nje emaphepheni njengoba kunamahemuhemu abanye ababambiqhaza embonini… kuyenzeka ngempela.
● I-Bangladesh ibe nenzuzo ephezulu kakhulu yokuthunyelwa kwezimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ngo-2021 - konke ngenxa yoshintsho lwama-oda avela e-China.
Iningi labathumeli bangaphandle be-RMG base-Bangladesh babika ukuthi amakhasimende abo, abekade ethenga e-China, aseqalile ukufaka ama-oda e-Bangladesh.Naphezu kwezivunguvungu eziningi zomhlaba kanye nobhubhane lwe-COVID-19 ngo-2021, izwe likwazile ukwenza inzuzo yokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-35.81 (ekhuphuke ngamaphesenti angama-31 YoY) ngonyaka odlule okwakuyimali engenayo ephezulu kakhulu yokuthekelisa eliyenzile ngonyaka wekhalenda.
Iningi labathumeli bangaphandle be-RMG base-Bangladesh babika ukuthi amakhasimende abo, abekade ethenga e-China, aseqalile ukufaka ama-oda e-Bangladesh.Naphezu kwezivunguvungu eziningi zomhlaba kanye nobhubhane lwe-COVID-19 ngo-2021, izwe likwazile ukwenza inzuzo yokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-35.81 (ekhuphuke ngamaphesenti angama-31 YoY) ngonyaka odlule okwakuyimali engenayo ephezulu kakhulu yokuthekelisa eliyenzile ngonyaka wekhalenda.
Imakethe ye-EU (kanye ne-UK) yenze imali engenayo yokuthekelisa ye-US $ 21.74 billion ekhuphuke ngamaphesenti angama-27.74 ngonyaka.
I-Team Apparel Resources ikhulume nezimboni ezithile eDhaka futhi yaqinisekisa uma ibhizinisi liyasuka e-China liye e-Bangladesh.
Eseka isitatimende, u-Humayun Kabir Salim, MD, KFL Group, osungula ifekthri yesimanje yamabhantshi eDhaka, uthe, "Njengoba kunesidingo samabhantshi ezimakethe zomhlaba, iKhantex inqume ukuhlukahluka kulokhu. ibhizinisi.Isidingo siphushwa e-Bangladesh imikhiqizo efana ne-Inditex, i-Gap, i-Next, i-C&A ne-Primark eyayivame ukuthola amabhantshi nezingubo zangaphandle ezivela e-China nase-Vietnam.Kepha leyo miyalo manje isishintshela eBangladesh ngoba i-COVID-19 iphoqelele ukuthi kuvalwe imboni eChina, kuyilapho iVietnam isigcwala manje. ”
I-denim bigwig i-Armana Group nayo ibike ukuthi ibone uguquko lusuka e-China nase-Vietnam njengoba abathengi manje sebeqonda ukubaluleka kwesu le-'China plus One' ngezidingo zabo zokuthenga.Esinye isizathu sokuthi i-Bangladesh iphumelele ekuthatheni ama-oda okushintsha amandla ayo okusungula amafekthri athobela kakhulu kuso sonke isifunda saseNingizimu Asia futhi konke ukutshalwa kwezimali okwenziwe eminyakeni emihlanu edlule yokwakha izimboni eziluhlaza ezisezingeni lomhlaba manje kuyakhokha!
"Izicucu zethu eziyizigidi ezi-3 ngenyanga kuzo zonke izimboni zibhukhelwe unyaka wonke futhi lokhu kungenxa yokuthi amakhasimende ethu akhona asuse inqwaba yama-oda esuka eChina aya eBangladesh njengoba iChina lisabhekene ne-COVID-19 nezindaba zezepolitiki," kuphawula uSandeep. UGolam, uMqondisi Wokusebenza, i-Armana Group.
Ngisho nezibalo ziyazithethelela izimangalo zabathumeli bangaphandle… I-Bangladesh yahlala ihamba phambili ngezimpahla zedenim e-USA unyaka wesibili olandelanayo ngo-2021.
Ngo-2019, unyaka ojwayelekile wangaphambi kobhubhane - i-Bangladesh yaba isithathu ekungenisweni kwezingubo zedenim zase-US, isalela ngemuva kweMexico neChina.Futhi, ngezikhathi zokuphazamiseka, iBangladesh yawadlula womabili la mazwe ukuze iqhwakele phezulu.Izwe lase liphothule u-2020 ngokuthumela impahla yedenim ebiza ama-US $561.29 million e-USA uma kuqhathaniswa ne-US $469.12 million yaseMexico kanye ne-US $331.93 million yaseChina.
Ukukhula kwaqhubeka ngisho nango-2021 lapho i-Bangladesh iphinde yakhombisa ukubusa esigabeni sedenim njengoba iphezulu ohlwini ngokuthunyelwa kwempahla yedenim ebiza u-US$798.42 wezigidi ukuya endaweni yayo enkulu yokuthekelisa, iphawula ukukhula kwe-YoY ngamaphesenti angama-42.25.
Okuphawulekayo lapha ukuthi isabelo se-Bangladesh sikhuphuke safinyelela kumaphesenti angu-21.70 ngo-2021 sisuka kumaphesenti angu-15.65 ngo-2019 emananini okungenisa aseMelika, ngaphandle kokuthi i-USA ayikwazanga ukweqa amanani ayo okungenisa ango-2019 esigabeni sezingubo zedenim.
● Yini elandelayo ukuze i-India ne-Bangladesh igcine ibhola ligingqika?
Kuningi okumelwe kwenziwe ukuze kuqhutshekwe nalo mfutho wokukhula futhi kokubili i-India ne-Bangladesh azishiyi lutho ukuze kuzuzwe imali engenayo ephezulu yokuthekelisa ngezimpahla zokuthengisa eminyakeni ezayo.
Ukugxila kwawo womabili la mazwe sekushintshele ekulandeni imali eyengeziwe yokuthekelisa ngezimpahla ezisekelwe ku-MMF.Ukukhiqizwa kwezingubo ze-MMF emhlabeni jikelele kuyithuba elingamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-200 futhi ukulanda amaphesenti angu-10 alo kungathatha izwe ku-$20 billion edinga ukwakhiwa kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka oluqala ngomklamo, ukuthuthukiswa komkhiqizo, ukuthuthukiswa kwendwangu kanye nezingubo.
Ithuba likhulu ngempela futhi okufanayo kungazwakala ngokuhlaziya idatha yokungenisa yendawo enkulu kunazo zonke yaseNdiya ethumela ngaphandle i-USA eyangenisa impahla ye-MMF ebiza u-US $ 39 billion ngo-2021 ecishe ifane nenani layo lokungenisa izingubo zikakotini (US $ 39.30 billion).Ngokuqhubeka nokumba imininingwane, iTeam Apparel Resources' ithole ukuthi isabelo seNdiya ekuthengisweni kwezimpahla ze-MMF e-USA singamaphesenti angu-2.10 (amaRandi ayizigidi ezingu-815.62), kuyilapho izingubo zikakotini zabelana ngemakethe ephakeme ngamaphesenti angu-8.22 (amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.23) .Futhi okufanayo kuyasebenza nakwezinye izimakethe ezibalulekile njenge-Europe, UAE, Japan, Canada, kanye ne-Australia lapho impahla yaseNdiya ye-MMF ethunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ihlanganyela cishe ngamaphesenti angama-20-22, kuyilapho izingubo zikakotini zenza cishe amaphesenti angama-75 yenani layo eliphelele lokuthekelisa.
Ngokufanayo, isabelo se-Bangladesh ekuthengisweni kwezingubo ze-MMF yase-USA simi kumaphesenti angu-4.62 (ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.78), ephakeme kunalokho eyayiyikho ngo-2020 (amaphesenti angu-3.96) nango-2019 (amaphesenti angu-3.20).Ngisho nasemakethe ye-EU, ingxenye ye-Bangladesh yezingubo ze-MMF yazungeza ngaphansi kwamaphesenti angu-4 ngo-2021. Impela iyakhula futhi imizamo idinga ukukhuphuka.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: May-23-2022